Answers to Miscellaneous Questions

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"What the F.D.A. is doing and what the public thinks it's doing are as different as night and day."
Dr. Herbert E. Ley, former FDA Commissioner

VAERS Reporting Rates

  1. I have been told that the research showing a 1% reporting rate for VAERS adverse reaction reports was not conducted by Harvard Medical School, but by Harvard Pilgram insurance company and that the paper did not really claim a 1% reporting rate. Is this true?

    The research was funded by a $1 million grant from the U.S. Health & Human Services (HHS) Department. The research was performed through Harvard Pilgram Health Care, but the two principal researchers were Harvard Medical School researchers and professors: Ross Lazarus (also here) and Michael Klompas (Backup).

    On Page 6 of the report, in the second to last paragraph of the Results section, the authors were very clear, "Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported." What is important is that this research is not the only evidence of an approximate 1% reporting rate to VAERS, including for deaths and other serious adverse effects. Other evidence presented in the VAERS FAQ.

  2. I saw a graph showing the HPV vaccine drugs had quite a few adverse reaction reports submitted to VAERS in 2007 and 2008 after the drug came on the market, but the adverse reactions went down significantly in 2009 through 2013. Could it be the publicity that causes an initial increase in reports to VAERS?

    Mostly no. The reporting rate for very serious adverse reactions such as deaths (1.13%) and anaphylaxis (1-2%) for COVID-19 vaccine drugs has is known as pointed out in the VAERS FAQ. What you see when adverse reaction reports go down over several years is simply an expected mathematical result not connected with whether or not a drug causes adverse reactions. This can be illustrated with a simplied example for the HPV vaccine. The HPV vaccine was given approval in June, 2006 and more widely administered in 2007 and 2008. In order to simplify the math, lets assume that for each age between 6 and 26 wwe have 1,000 young women/children. The HPV vaccine was offered in three doses for ages 9 - 26 years old. In our example population, that would amount to 18,000 people. By the end of 2008, approximately 40% of the population had received at least one dose (see CDC graph). That would amount to 40% of 18,000 = 7,200. During that same time (2007-2008), only 2,000 7-8 year old girls became 9-years-old and eligible to receive an HPV vaccine. Therefore our population group who haven't received a vaccine is (18,000 - 7,200) + 2,000 = 13,800. Because they gave the vaccine drugs to everyone they could from ages 9 - 26 during 2007 and 2008, the available population to vaccinate in the future goes down signifacantly. That is one major reason that the adverse reactions would go down after 2008.

    Please keep in mind that VAERS tends to be for reporting short-term reactions, including serious reactions like death, seizures, blood clots, etc. However, it is not used to link long-term effects like cancer and other debilitating diseases to drugs (even though there could be a connection in some cases). So, when we are looking at short-term effects, people who reacted to the first of three doses of HPV vaccine would be much less likely to continue taking the drugs. In fact, the CDC graph) shows that the percentage of people taking all three vaccine drug doses stays well below those taking at least one dose. For example: Let's say we have a population of 10 test subjects taking three doses of HPV vaccine. If three (3) of the test subject react badly to the first dose, they may drop out of the experiment. Then you are left with a population of seven (7) people who are less likely to have short-term adverse effects. Perhaps one (1) or two (2) of those seven (7) react after the second dose and they drop out. Eventually, you get to a population that is less susceptible to short-term effects. Even though the remaining test subjects may be less susceptible to short-term adverse effects, they might risk serious health problems from long-term hazards. In some cases, those who had moderate short-term adverse effects and avoided the drug later, may be far better off than those who had no immediate reaction, but ignored the long-term hazards.

    The two important points so far are: 1) When you ramp up to vaccinate a large percent of the population very quickly as was done with HPV and now with these COVID-19 vaccine drugs, most of the short-term adverse reaction reports to VAERS will happen within a year or two of the start of the experiment. 2) As people have moderate or serious short-term reactions and/or learn about the dangers of the COVID-19 vaccine drugs, they will stop getting "booster" shots to protect their health and the population that remains is less sussceptible to the short-term effects. However, long-term hazards are at least as serious a concern as short-term adverse effects.

    When the HPV vaccine program started, the vaccine schedule was to space the three doses out as follows: week 0 (dose 1), week 4 (dose 2) and then week 12 (dose 3) (Table at bottom). A couple of years later, the schedule changed to the following: week 0 (dose 1), week 8 (dose 2) and then week 24 (dose 3) (Item #2 below Figure 2). Allowing significantly more space between doses may have helped reduce the number of the adverse reactions.

    For those familar with the huge backlog of COVID-19 vaccine drug reports to VAERS, it may not come as a shock that the lowering of the HPV reactions also coincided with the significant increase in missing case IDs ("VAERS_IDs") from the VAERS database.

    Finally, in the case of the HPV vaccine, there are many very serious adverse reaction reports, lawsuits and researchers who have pointed to toxic substances in the vaccine mixture (here and here).

VAERS Case Reports

  1. Is it true that there are some erroneous reports in VAERS such as someone claiming that a vaccine turned them into the Incredible Hulk?

    While it is a U.S. Federal crime to submit a false report to VAERS and most reports are submitted by responsible medical personnel, there are some persons willing to commit crimes in order to create false impressions about VAERS data. Out of the hundreds of thousands of reports submitted to VAERS since 1990, there have been some fake reports and there are some unscrupulous individuals who will pick through all of the reports and list only the handful of fake reports. On the Adverse Reaction Data page, the reports are unfiltered (other than by a particular symptom) so that readers can go through them to see what VAERS reports actually look like. For space considerations, the reports on this website only list: a) VAERS_ID; b) Receive Date; c) Age; d) Sex; e) Vax Date; f) Symptoms Onset Date; and g) Symptom Details. However, the Raw VAERS Data webpage provides access to the raw VAERS download files dating back to 1990 as well as a custom Microsoft Access 97 database allowing readers to query and print all 35 fields of each case. Going directly to OpenVAERS, or the official VAERS website are other ways to query the data and get the raw data file downloads.

  2. I have been told that the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) investigated and found that none of the 693,065 adverse reaction reports (or 284,800 backlogged cases) in the last 12 months prior to December 10, 2021 can be linked to the COVID-19 vaccine drugs.

    Usually when you see an article that makes this claim, there will be a picture of the CDC building to attempt to add to the serious nature of the claim. The table below compares the number of a selection of serious adverse reactions from the flu vaccines (for 2 years prior to 2021) to COVID-19 vaccine drugs (for the last 12 month through December 10, 2021):

    Symptom COVID-19 Vaccine Drug Reactions
    (12 Month Period)
    COVID-19 Vaccine Drug Reactions
    (Including Backlogged Cases)
    (12 Month Period)
    Flu Vaccine Reactions
    (2 Year Period)
    All Adverse Reactions 693,065 977,865 22,200
    Deaths 9,334 13,169 124
    Blood Clots 8,951 12,629 39
    Seizures/Convulsions 6,631 9,355 330
    Anaphylaxis 3,097 4,369 108
    Eye/Vision Disorders 35,771 50,470 1,092

    Investigating each serious case would require speaking to the patient's physicians, analyzing hospital records, lab reports, speaking with relatives, analyzing the autopsy records. It is literally impossible for the CDC or any government organization to go from analyzing a relatively small number of cases over a 2-year period to analyzing tens of thousands of cases in a 12 month period while more cases a pouring in. The CDC is barely capable of getting 71% of their cases uploaded into the VAERS database.

    The CDC has only ever had two responses to concerns about vaccines created by their drug company partners:

    1. A statement saying that all cases have been analyzed and no link to the vaccine was found.

    2. When pushed into a corner about adverse effects, the CDC will state that a specific adverse reaction only happens in 1 in a million (or 2 or 3 in a million) cases. They almost use "a million" because it sounds unbelivably rare. They made this statement about COVID-19 vaccine drugs and anaphylaxis and they were off by a factor of 50-100 based on real world research. They made this statement about blood clots and they were far off on this statement as well.

Vaccine Drug Doses

  1. Is the reason for so many adverse reactions due to the large number of COVID-19 vaccine drugs injected in the first part of 2021?

    While it is true that well over 100 million Americans have been injected with COVID-19 vaccine drugs, it is also true that a similar number of Americans are injected with other vaccination drugs on a regular basis. In research published on the
    CDC website, Figure 4 shows the percentage of adults who received a flu vaccine drug injection by age group and by year. Nearly 70% of adults 65 years old and over received a flu vaccine. Approximately 50% of adults from 50 to 64 years old received a flu vaccine. 38% of adults from 18 to 49 years old received a flu vaccine. Overall, 48.4% of adults received a flu vaccine. The population of adults in the United States is approximately 255 million. Therefore, over 123 million received a flu vaccine.

    Figure 1 shows the flu vaccine drug coverage for the nearly 73 million children in the United States is 63.8%. That amounts to approximately 49 million children. The total coverage for adults and children in the United States is approximately 172 million. If the adverse reactions were “coincidental,” we would see a similar number of adverse effect for flu vaccine drugs in years prior to 2021.

    Finally, in 2015, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) published a paper where they said that, “Hundreds of millions of vaccinations are administered in the United States each year.” (Clinical Infectious Disease, 2015 Sep 15;61(6):980-7. doi: 10.1093/cid/civ423. Epub 2015 May 28).

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